1/25/2008

What South Carolina Means: Barack Obama

Note: This is the third and final installment of my three-part series assessing the three remaining Democratic presidential candidates as they pertain to the South Carolina Democratic primary tomorrow. This piece was originally written on January 22 and is currently posted at Pajamas Media. Due to contractual stipulations, this piece cannot be posted on The 7-10 in its entirety at present. However, it will be posted here on Sunday.

In short, this piece assesses the three probable media storylines that will emerge from the primary results tomorrow. All of these storylines are predicated on an Obama victory. The differences in storylines all depend on how large his margin of victory is, how balanced his support is, and how the Clinton campaign and the media interpret his performance:

Headline 1: Barack Obama wins South Carolina! Black vote critical to Obama’s success! This is the Barack Obama '08 becomes Jesse Jackson '88 scenario.

Headline 2: Barack Obama wins South Carolina! Margin of victory is smaller than expected! This is the Barack Obama '08 becomes Howard Dean '04 scenario.

Headline 3: Barack Obama wins South Carolina! Draws equal support from Blacks and Whites! This is the only true victory scenario for Barack Obama and his campaign and is probably the only way he could make it to the nomination and general election.

You can read the rest of this piece at Pajamas Media.

2 comment(s):

Nikki said...

hey there Anthony congrats on the pajama article......I heard someone on the radio from this website I think just yesterday on the Michael Medved show. I am going to link it on my site!! I will venture over and read your full article. I will tune in tomorrow for some results analysis!!!! Nikki

Andy said...

If Obama wins by 20 points, which looks possible at this point, his percentage of the white vote won't matter in my opinion. That will be a huge win and one tough to ignore.