The Importance of Name Identification

I was watching television with my wife a few days ago. We were watching MSNBC's "Race for the White House," which is basically a political junkie's dream show: nothing but punditry, punditry, and more punditry. Political junkies are so well acquainted with Washington's pundits, columnists, and opinion makers that the mere mentioning of their last names evokes strong expressions of support or disgust: Scarborough, Bennett, Hume, Maddow, Smerconish, Borger, Dowd, Brownstein, Gergen, Will, Freidman, Robinson, Olbermann, Schneider, Buchanan...

Anyway, the pundits were talking nonstop about the race between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama post-Indiana/North Carolina. Should Clinton drop out? Will Obama choose her as VP? What happened to Bill Clinton's political skills? Was she pandering with the gas tax? Who made the biggest gaffe? Of course, I was happily taking in all of the pundits' hot air, both nodding in agreement and shaking my head in disbelief. My wife was watching the show with me too, but she wasn't paying much attention to what the pundits were saying. She was just happy watching television with me.

After the show had to take a commercial break, my wife broke her silence:

"Poor John McCain..."

Intrigued by my wife's sudden foray into political analysis and punditry, I had to ask why.

"Because nobody's talking about him anymore."

Interestingly, I had no response to this. And it was difficult to concentrate on the rest of the show from then on. I couldn't help but think that even though my wife does not follow politics much at all and has no clue who people like Jill Zuckerman and Roland Martin are, she very well may have been onto something that I haven't heard many of the "professionals" touch on so far.

Most pundits seem to believe that the extended race between Clinton and Obama is hurting the Democratic Party. I've tended to agree with this view, and there have been polls suggesting that their supporters may vote for John McCain or stay home if "their candidate" doesn't win the nomination. White women, a major part of Clinton's base, are sensitive to the idea that "men" unfairly forced her out of the race. Blacks, a major part of Obama's base, are sensitive to the idea that "Whites" took the nomination away from "their" candidate.

These are very real problems. But then I think about what my wife said.

Nobody's talking about John McCain. It's as if Clinton vs. Obama is the main event while Obama vs. McCain (the more likely November scenario) is the undercard. In other words, the primary election seems more important than the general election this year. Democratic voter registration and party identification have increased substantially compared to 2004. Democrats have been outvoting Republicans in almost all of the primaries so far this year. Democrats are clearly more enthusiastic about the upcoming election than Republicans. Both Clinton and Obama have been all over the news for months, while John McCain's name is barely mentioned. I would not be so quick to call this "media bias," but the fact is that there simply isn't much news to report on the Republicans these days simply because that race is finished.

If Clinton and Obama continue battling each other through June and Clinton takes her fight all the way to the convention, this news will continue to dominate the airwaves the way it is now. Once the Democrats finally have a nominee, he (or she) will be matched up against some guy that either nobody knows or everyone has forgotten about. Obama and Clinton may be beating each other up to their collective detriment. However, they are also at least getting their names out there. And if my wife is any indication of average voters who don't follow the 24-hour political newscycle, perhaps the real loser in the Clinton-Obama fight is John McCain.

Think about why there is so little turnover in congressional elections. It's not simply because of gerrymandering or the idea that voters really like their congressmen. It's also because their challengers often don't have the money or the megaphone to get their message out. So when it's time to vote, voters see one name on the ballot they do know and one name they don't. Unless the person is a partisan supporter or a partisan critic, more often than not he will vote for the person whose name he has at least heard of. This would seem to render one's unfavorability ratings moot. After all, Hillary Clinton has been able to win 49% of the vote in the primaries and caucuses thus far despite her "sky high negatives."

This post is not intended to be an endorsement of any candidate. However, John McCain had better make himself a part of the discussion sooner rather than later because he risks fading into political obscurity as far as nonpartisan and less engaged voters are concerned. Hillary Clinton and Republicans have argued that Barack Obama is "too risky" to be President because nobody knows much about him or his resume. Ironically, however, the "riskier" choice to these voters may very well be the candidate nobody is talking about right now. Will name ID trump policy positions and resumes at the ballot box in November? Talking with my wife a few days ago suggests that this may very well be more of an issue than the pundits realize at present.

Hillary Clinton: What's Next

In the eyes of most pundits and political observers, yesterday's split decision in the North Carolina and Indiana primaries was actually a devastating blow to the presidential aspirations of Hillary Clinton:

1. Even though she won Indiana, she only won by 2 percentage points, which is far less than what most people had expected. That disappointing finish really blunted some of her preferred talking points coming out of the election--that she had real momentum and that Obama had real problems among voters in the Midwest. People aren't talking about Obama's inability to win places like Ohio as much as they used to.

2. She lost North Carolina by such a large margin that it essentially canceled out the popular vote margin she had racked up in Pennsylvania. She can still claim to be leading in the overall popular vote, but given the quasi-elections of Florida and Michigan, this popular vote "lead" is not entirely credible. And more importantly than popular votes, Obama netted more pledged delegates again, thus making the math that much more difficult for Clinton.

3. There are too few contests remaining for her to catch him. The next three primaries are in West Virginia, Oregon, and Kentucky. After that are the electoral gold mines known as Montana and South Dakota. Puerto Rico is a bit more lucrative, but even that state with its high Latino population won't be enough to put Clinton over the top in terms of pledged delegates.

Obama gave a conciliatory victory speech last night. He is clearly trying to shift from a primary election campaign to a general election campaign and wants to extend an olive branch to Clinton. Although nobody's pressuring her to give up the fight just yet, the pressure is definitely on her not to tear Obama down any further because doing so would turn most of the party against her. Much to the delight of her supporters, Clinton said she was going "full steam ahead," which is her right, but lots of pundits are wondering why.

Here are some possible reasons why Clinton is still in the race:

1. It's so late in the process now that she might as well just let all 50 states vote. And after all, she has said on the campaign trail several times that she was going to campaign everywhere and fight for this election. Dropping out of the race now would undercut her image as a "fighter." And what about Florida and Michigan? She keeps talking about how "their votes should count." Well, if she drops out of the race, how will she fight to have their voices heard? And on a more basic level, she has been running for president for years. If she's going to pull the plug on her presidential bid, she might as well do it when things are officially hopeless. Her political situation hasn't reached that point just yet, but it is getting close.

2. She wants to go out on a high note. One of the golden rules for athletes is to retire when they're at the top of their game, not when they are fading. Michael Jordan did just that when he sank the game-winning shot at the buzzer in Game 6 against the Utah Jazz in the 1998 NBA Finals. That shot gave the Chicago Bulls their third consecutive NBA championship and their 6th title in 8 years. Jordan was clearly on top. But then he came back to play for the Washington Wizards a few years later. He was still a formidable player, but there were times when he showed his age and did not intimidate players the way he used to. So even though he was having fun, his legacy was tarnished a bit. Does Hillary Clinton really want her last hurrah to be a narrow escape in a state she was supposed to win comfortably? If she's going to get out of the race, she might be better served by doing so after a strong finish somewhere else. Kentucky and West Virginia seem to be perfect places for her to do so. But that brings up this next option:

3. She really thinks she still has a chance to win this. Clinton should make a significant dent in Obama's delegate lead after West Virginia, Kentucky, and Puerto Rico have their say. Mind you, her gains there will not be enough to totally change the race unless she wins by something like 85-15. However, any pledged delegates she can rack up in these easy states function as superdelegates she doesn't have to plead with later on.

4. She is crossing her fingers that Obama will self-destruct. Basically, the only way Obama could lose now is for there to be some scandal or incriminating video that exposes Obama as a fraud or a criminal. Jeremiah Wright was the closest thing to a campaign-ending event that has happened so far. Since it happened once, it could happen again. By circling the political shower drain, Clinton could hope that Obama somehow loses his footing and slips down the drain into political oblivion. Anything can happen before the convention, so at least Clinton has a prayer.

5. She wants to quit, but also wants to pay off her campaign debts. It is common practice for failed presidential candidates to ask their supporters to help retire their debts with one final campaign contribution. Clinton has loaned her campaign millions of dollars. Supporters will be more likely to donate $25 to someone who is still fighting to be president than to a failed candidate who comes across like a political panhandler. Once Clinton drops out of the race, she will lose a lot of her influence among her supporters and she'll have a harder time paying that debt down.

6. She wants to improve her brand image and/or make a case for Obama's vice president. I argued in February that an Obama-Clinton ticket was not gonna happen. However, if Clinton runs a clean campaign and helps make her base consider him more acceptable, perhaps he could reward her with the #2 slot. However, there are far more attractive options out there for him to choose. And besides, Clinton contradicts too much of his own political message to make such a ticket a cohesive one. Clinton doesn't have to accept Obama's invitation, but if Obama at least makes the offer, it could be good for the Democratic Party because it would heal the base. And besides, does Clinton want to be known for kneecapping Obama and throwing the election to the Republicans? If she does this, she could kiss her chances in 2012 goodbye. Remember, her legacy is on the line too, so she also has a vested interest in resolving this process amicably.

Obama is doing the right thing by focusing on John McCain. He gains nothing by mixing it up with Clinton anymore, and trying to win delegates he doesn't need in West Virginia and Kentucky would distract him from the more important task of engaging John McCain. Clinton is really in a box now because she can't go after Obama like she used to. All she can do is just present her case to the voters and hope that her retail politicking in places Obama "has left behind" is noticed by rural voters everywhere and superdelegates from rural states because it is these rural (swing) voters that decide elections.

Handicapping Indiana and North Carolina

May 6 is Super Tuesday III. For voters in Indiana and North Carolina, they will have a chance to either definitively end this race, grant Hillary Clinton one more stay of political execution, or cause voters everywhere to rethink Obama's strength.

Indiana is a lot like Ohio and Pennsylvania, both of which Clinton won. They are largely rural White states with large blue-collar populations and a handful of major industrial centers. And North Carolina is a lot more like Virginia than South Carolina, both of which Obama won. Like Virginia, North Carolina is a young, ethnically diverse state with a lot of well-educated professionals and university students.

In short, Obama has far more to lose than Clinton does simply because Clinton is already running as if she has nothing left to lose. Her stock is rising and she is much better at managing expectations. Obama is still reeling from his own controversies and missteps and is having to fend off renewed doubts about his electibility. So it appears that Obama is a bit stalled while Clinton has a little bit of momentum. That will all change after the polls close, however, as pundits and political junkies everywhere will have fresh election data to pore over and new storylines to pursue.

Here are the four possible outcomes:

1. Clinton wins Indiana, Obama wins North Carolina. This seems to be the most likely outcome, and both candidates could spin this as a victory. Obama would cite the lack of remaining pledged delegates and winning a state post-Jeremiah Wright as a win while Clinton would claim another victory in a largely rural state, thus reinforcing her argument that she is more in touch with Reagan Democrats. As an added benefit for Clinton, the two electoral contests that follow are Kentucky and West Virginia, states that should be even easier for her to win. So she could possibly build momentum even with a tie in North Carolina and Indiana.

2. Clinton wins both states or Clinton does significantly better in North Carolina than Obama does in Indiana. This is the Obama nightmare scenario. Yes, the delegate math would still favor Obama, but voters and superdelegates don't care about delegate math if the person winning it is seen as a walking political zombie. It would be much harder for Obama to claim victory (the nomination) because of abstract concepts like "delegate math." If Obama loses both states, the perception would be that Clinton is hot while he is fading. Superdelegates would begin to seriously question the wisdom of throwing their weight behind him because he would have lost three major contests in a row (including Pennsylvania). On top of this, the next two contests coming down the pike are in Kentucky and West Virginia--states Clinton should win easily. That would mean five losses in a row for the "delegate math" leader and favorable press for the self-described Comeback Kid. If this happens, here's the case that Clinton will make to superdelegates: "Obama may have won the first half of the game, but I've won the second half. I know how to fight and claw back even when the chips are down. Can you trust Obama to do the same?"

3. Obama wins both states, regardless of his margins of victory. It would be very, very difficult for Clinton to continue her campaign because Obama would have won on "her" turf. For superdelegates and pundits who desperately want this race to be over, Obama clinching Indiana would effectively end this race in their minds. They would then pressure Clinton to "reassess" her campaign.

4. Obama wins Indiana, Clinton wins North Carolina. Should both candidates lose the states they were expected to win, all pundits would probably just call it a day, resign from analyzing politics altogether, and place their money on Mike Gravel winning the White House.

Here are the voting blocs worth watching:

Young voters. Early May is normally the time when university students are either in the middle of final exams or are enjoying the week between final exams and graduation. This provides a double whammy for Obama in particular because these voters form such a large part of his base. If it's exam time, 18-25 year olds might be too busy to come out and vote because they're cramming for their classes. If it's downtime, these voters might be more likely to be out of state (or at least out of their voting precincts) because they're enjoying their last week of freedom before graduating, summer school, or starting their new full-time jobs. North Carolina is chock full of large universities: The University of North Carolina and its satellite campuses, Duke University (my alma mater), North Carolina State, Wake Forest, North Carolina A&T, Appalachian State, and North Carolina Central University are home to tens of thousands of students. If they don't turn out, Clinton would have to feel pretty good about her chances.

Black voters. North Carolina represents the first state with a sizable Black population to head to the polls since Jeremiah Wright exploded in Obama's face. Black voters were originally reluctant to support Obama (remember those ridiculous "Is Obama Black enough" questions?) because they feared Whites would not support him, but his victory in overwhelmingly White Iowa and his near victory in equally overwhelmingly White New Hampshire confirmed to these voters that he is indeed able to garner significant cross-racial support. Obama acquitted himself in the minds of these voters, and Clinton helped push these voters to him with the racialized tone of her South Carolina campaign. So Blacks got excited and flocked to his campaign. However, Wright has clearly injured Obama and now doubts are creeping back in again about his electibility. Will Blacks come out to the polls? And if so, will Obama win 85-90% of their votes? Should Clinton overperform among Blacks in North Carolina, she will be able to use that as a potent talking point: "I'm working hard for everyone's votes. I know I have some fence-mending to do, but I'm doing it and North Carolina has proved it. Give me a chance." And could Obama really make the South competitive in a general election if Blacks are not completely on board?

Rural White voters. If Obama is unable to improve his standing among rural Whites in either state compared to Pennsylvania, Democratic superdelegates will have a major cause for concern. These voters, who likely would have voted for John Edwards, would potentially be lost to John McCain in a general election because of "bitterness," "elitism," and the perception that Obama is out of touch. Obama's latest charm offensive of playing basketball and downing beers in local bars may help redefine him as more down-to-earth, but if Obama's coalition is independents, Blacks, and well-educated liberals, is that really broad enough to win a general election?

Northwest Indiana voters. This corner of the state is a part of the Chicago media market. While the national media are slowly moving on from Jeremiah Wright, the local news stations are probably eating, drinking, and breathing him. Remember, Chicago is essentially Obama's hometown. Are they sick of hearing about the issue? Do they view Obama as damaged goods? If Clinton is able to hold down Obama's margin of victory in the Chicago suburbs, she could be on her way to a healthy victory in the Hoosier State. Questions about Obama's strength among suburban voters may also linger.

Final predictions

Indiana: Clinton 54%, Obama 44%
North Carolina: Obama 50%, Clinton 46%, Edwards 3%